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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.