Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.